Exit strategy

Expected Impact

We define Expected Impact a programme that have become sustainable over time and does not require further backup from an external stakeholder. The Expected impact is measured at the time of closing the programme.  We may in addition aim to measure if our impact is still sustainable some period after we have closed the programme, maybe one, two, five and event ten years after. In order to be able to expect impact, we benefit from the HR&S evaluation planning practical strategy ROPE.

Real-time Outcome Planning & Evaluation (ROPE)

The Real-time Outcome Planning & Evaluation (ROPE) is a practical strategy that enables local developers to implement their solutions in collaboration with international partners. We compile and address the necessary conditions required to bring about a given impact. A new ROPE programme starts with setting a goal and developing indicators to measure results. Then we develop an implementation plan, we secure finances, staff, and infrastructure, then we ensure knowledge sharing, the accounting procedures and the cross-cultural understanding. Thereafter we make an activity plan and assign people and institutions; who will do what, how and when. Now we implement, and after we measure the results and analyse. Thereafter we complement with what did not go well until we reach the goal we set up in the beginning.

Programme design

The programme idea shall take into account what has already been implemented in relation to the programme idea, and by whom? What can be strengthened and how? Who are potential Strategic partners? There shall also be a justification for taking an initiative in the context. Do we have the institutional capacity?  Do we see an opportunity for a sustainable economy? What would be the honest motivation for the Programme management partners to take this initiative on? We present the Context and challenge addressed. Programme idea is often a narrative of the replies to the questions: i) “What do you want to do?”, ii) “How do you want to do it?”, iii) Why did you not do it already?” iv) “Which are the country and local authority regulations?”, v) “Which are the surrounding policies?”, vi) “How do you plan to reach a sustainable economy / what is the business idea?”.

Professional Ambitions

This section explains what the target partner has identified as the solution to her situation. What she wants to do and achieve right now in her life. What are the goals of the Target Partners?  It is the answer to the question “What do you want (to do)?”

Outcome challenges: Here we discuss in general the challenges that the Target partner face. This is a compilation of the reasons for why the Target Partners are not doing what they want to do to implement their ambitions. It is the answer to the question “Why did you not do it already?”.

Output & Outcome: The implementation plan of the Target partner presents what she wants to do in actual practice. What are the actual activities and steps in order to achieve her ambitions? What needs to be done in actual practice making it happen.  It is the answer to the question “How do you want to do it?”

Progress markers & Sources of Evidence

Then we identify a Progress marker for each outcome. Progress markers are measurable indicators of progress or non-progress. We compile the baseline, thus the situation prior to implementing our programme. Thereafter we identify sources of evidence for each progress marker and outcome and for the expected impact. Then we identify the statistical method chosen to measure progress together with the objects for collecting evidence and controls.

Activity plan & Input required

It is now time to develop a concrete activity plan which defines who is going to do what, when and how. The activity plan will identify the needs for input including; staff, skills, training, work hours, network, and funds.

Strategy for Change

The last step in the ROPE Design is to develop a Strategy for Change (SfC). A Strategy for Change is essentially a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context.

Implementation

Implement the Activity plan

The implementation of the activity plan includes for example; Evaluation planning workshops; Seeking Start-up funding, and collecting evidence.

Collect evidence

Expected outcome and impact – Compile evidence for each expected outcome and each expected impact. Unexpected outcome and impact: Identify and compile unexpected outcome. It can be positive and it can be negative – Unexpected output and outcome challenges- Identify and compile unexpected challenges.

Testing the strength of Evidence for Impact

The evaluations are made real-time and the purpose is learning lessons.

Evaluation planning & Conclusions

The lessons learned are compiled and constitutes the platform for the evaluation planning. The programme strategy is adjusted in relation to the lessons learned. When reaching the expected impact, the programme can be concluded and the previous partners become Strategic partners. A new collaboration may be initiated later. We also take it as an important responsibility to share our lessons learned.

Evidence based impact (TestE)

We design surveys and measure progress in relation to outcome and income according to the HR&S impact assessment practical strategy Testing the strength of scientific evidence for impact (TestE).

Micro data survey design

Quantitative analysis – Statistical method

Basic statistics: The basic assumption to be made is that a set of data, obtained under the same conditions, has a normal or Gaussian distribution. The primary parameters used are the mean (or average) and the standard deviation, and the main tools F-test for precision, t-Tests for bias, Linear correlation and regression and Analysis of variance (ANOVA).

Simple comparison: With randomized evaluations, the simplest method is to measure the average outcome of the targeted group and compare it to the average outcome of the control group. The difference represents the programme’s impact. To determine whether this impact is statistically significant, one can test the equality of means, using a simple t-test. One of the many benefits of randomized evaluations is that the impact can be measured without advanced statistical techniques.

Propagation of errors: The final result of a Programme is calculated from several activities (outputs) performed during the implementation and the total error in a programme is an adding-up of the sub-errors made in the various steps. The bias and precision of the whole Programme are usually relevant parameters.

Qualitative assessment – Probability methods

With qualitative assessments, and contrary to statistical methods, the quality of the evidence is not judged by the sample size (the number of observations) but rather the probability of observing certain pieces of evidence. Qualitative impact evaluation includes assessing the contribution made by a particular intervention in achieving one or more outcomes, commonly referred to as a ‘contribution claim’. TestE benefit from process tracing to assess our Strategy for Change and from contribution tracing to examine the contribution by external stakeholders. We also address Team operations, Cost- benefit, Needs driven, Equal partnership and Unexpected effects.

Study sample

i)Ensure that the person asked is representative for the group, and that we would expect the same answer if we asked someone else,
ii) reflect over if the results of our randomized evaluations is generalizable to other contexts.

Control

Simple randomized evaluations: impact evaluations that are scientifically sound usually compares outcomes of those (individuals, communities, etc.) who participated in the programme against those who did not participate.